The paradox is named after James Stockdale who was a POW in Vietnam for over seven years – much of it in solitary. What he found was that his fellow prisoners who broke mentally and ultimately died in prison were the optimists. The ones who thought they’d be out by a certain date – usually a holiday, or the end of a calendar year. When that date came and went, they were discouraged and lost hope. Which ultimately led to their demise.
Unlike those who placed their hope on a false premise of optimism, Stockdale maintained a realistic assessment of his situation. That’s the negative. He faced the facts as bad as they were. And yet, he maintained the outlook that he would eventually survive. That’s the positive.
The quote most often attributed to him about this topic is this.
"You must never confuse faith that you will prevail in the end — which you can never afford to lose — with the discipline to confront the most brutal facts of your current reality, whatever they might be." ~ James Stockdale
How do we maintain both attitudes in the midst of our current pandemic?
First, we must confront the brutal facts of the situation. Many are sick and dying. We can’t predict when this will end or how bad it will get before it gets better. And the economic situation is dire. Many companies won’t make it.
And yet, there is something we can do.
We can control our actions. In our personal lives, we can stay at home more than we’d like to. We can wash our hands and disinfect our environment. We can wear masks when we do have to go out. We can ask for help when we need it – mental, emotional, material, and financial help. And we can provide help and especially kindness when we can.
For our Companies
Scenario planning is a process that can give us a way to look at how the future may unfold - both good and bad - and develop a plan. Or actually several plans, one for each scenario. Our predictions for the future won't be exact, but the planning helps us be prepared. And doing this work can keep us from being paralyzed by the negatives if they occur. And it provides insight into what we can control and what we can't.
Controlling what we can and doing what’s under our control is how we envision the path forward even if the timing is uncertain.
